Good morning traders!
There are a few pieces of important even risk this week, beginning with the G20 meeting that began last week and ran over the weekend. We have China’s PMI, the US jobs report and HICP inflation numbers for the Eurozone. Continuing themes will be Brexit, ECB tools and US rate hike speculation. There was very strong US GDP data on Friday which has boosted the dollar and we took out the significant 1.10 EURUSD handle, which I expected would be bullish for the Dax, however it caused the SPX to fall and took the Dax with it.
It’s unlikely that the G20 meeting will yield any significant policy changes.
Today the Eurozone release the CPI data, which came in just little under expectation, leading to a further slump in the EURUSD which no hovers around 1.09, a bounce from this could be bearish for the Dax.
The daily chart for the Dax, still continues to carve out an inverse head and shoulders pattern, the neckline however is still a little unclear, but the shoulders are beginning to emerge. The Daily chart is still pretty bearish, but a break of 9600 could be interesting.
The four hour chart shows the Bollinger bands begin to come back under control again and for the last couple of weeks we have been trapped inside the 9100-9600 trading range, with price currently settling in the middle. No clear opportunity to trade this one right from this the H4 chart.
The 30-minute chart shows the 9600 level more clearly with a double top posted last week. I have a parallel from the previous channel and it is still holding price when connecting it to the Thursday low and the low of today. A break below this could be interesting. A break below 9286 could offer a trading opportunity too. The Oscillators are oversold, so bulls may consider a long with stop under the daily low, aiming for a pullback with targets somewhere in the 9425-9450 range.
The 5 minute chart is currently between S1 and S2, sitting 60 points or so above the S2, bulls may look to trigger a long from closer to the S2 with a stop 10-25 points below it and target a pullback towards either the S1 or Pivot. Bears may look to short from closer to S1 with stops above the daily peak from around 8:00GMT, targeting a break below the daily low.
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day EMA||10295|