Dax Technical Analysis 26/06/2015

Good morning traders!


We are here, it’s the Friday before the main event (this weekend) and we have a lot of volatility due on Monday morning. We are going to learn a lot more about the prospects of Greece and the Eurozone, I don’t want to speculate on the outcome because I think it is still almost 50/50, I can not seem to filter the BS from the news stories and press releases. So when I am in this kind of situation, I take the passive route, by clearing all positions and watching. I don’t think there is any point in trading this kind of volatility, I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other, it’s a gamble and gamblers are mostly losers, so I’d rather pass on the opportunity.

My Trades

Yesterday was a big day for my automatic trading software, with multiple big wins and my current statistics are:

Profit Trades:51 (71.83%)
Loss Trades:20 (28.17%)
Total Profit: 744.51 GBP
Growth: 7.46%
Max Drawdown: 2.64%
Sharpe Ratio: 0.38
Not bad considering this account has only been trading for TWO WEEKS! A 7.46% return in two weeks is incredible, but I am fully aware that it is unlikely to continue like this. But I am finding some good settings, I like the software, it’s working how I want it and I am not far from being ready to roll it out. Few more weeks maybe.

Dax Support & Resistance

Daily R211719
Daily R111582
Daily Pivot11463
Daily S111326
Daily S211207
200 Day EMA10856

Dax Charts

I have included an Ichimoku cloud layer over the daily chart to show we are heading towards some turbulence above with the resistance being around 11500. The daily EMA is climbing and gradually squeezing us into a breakout position. The 200 EMA bounce looks even clearer now.

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart

The four hour chart is still respecting the bearish trend channel and bounced from Oct14 trend line resistance keeping the bearish channel intact. On a bigger picture it is looking more like a bull flag.

Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)

A few trade setups on the 30 minute chart below. As a bull I am watching for a bounce from between 11350-11400 to move up towards 11550+. I like the idea of trading a breakout above the yesterday high. Bears can watch for a a break below the black line was was support yesterday and a break under 11150 could signal a move much lower perhaps even completing a 100% fib extension from April/May swing.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Five minute chart shows a tenuous triangle pattern. A breakout could offer a trade opportunity.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)