Dax Technical Analysis 26/03/2015

Good morning Traders!

So a frustrating start to the day for me, all my longs have been stopped out, and price has been flushed as plenty of sell orders have been triggered. A stark reminder of the speed that the market can move, although this isn’t the largest move we have ever seen. So I am neutral. I mentioned yesterday that I was concerned, today has perhaps started to justify that concern.

So how far can we go?

I think 11574 is a good target initially, as 11500 would be a buying zone, beyond those levels if the selloff continues we could be looking at a deeper 10% correction from the highs, so perhaps closer to 10800 or 11000. There was a lot of support built here, so it could well hold, it would also be the lower bound of the trend channel going back to November. I think a break below 11k would only happen if another big fundamental factor came along.

The bottom line is, I will take my losses today and sit out until price looks to settle. I will unlikely trade again today, perhaps tomorrow either.

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Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212091-79
Daily R111978-93
Value High11964-66
Daily Pivot11910-23
34 Hour EMA11883-66
Naked VPOC11867-114
24hr VWAP11844-110
Value Low11841-65
Daily S111797-37
Daily S21172933
200 Day EMA10182-17

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

A strong break out of the range we have boxed in, to the downside, so I have to say I am neutral in my bias at the moment. A correction was needed as we have been dangerously extended. The current daily candle looks aggressive, whether it closes that way, will be interesting to see, but I am not buying yet (or shorting either).

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5 min)

We have already taken out the daily S2, which is crazy, so the S3 has to be the next target. I will watch the reactions at 11625, 11600 and 11575.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30 min)

A clean break through the weekly S1 and the S2 resides at 11576 which acts as an area of confluence with the upper trend line from the recent bear channel, so that will be an interesting area to watch, especially as it was also (pretty much) the 0.618 extension on the daily chart. I may be

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
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Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

Not much point watching this one today, the move has already happened, all levels have been taken out, we are massively sold. Perhaps we could see a pullback towards VWAP later, but the momentum seems to favour the correction at the moment.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
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