Dax Technical Analysis 25/06/2015

[info]Part One 00:24GMT [/info]

Good morning traders!

Let’s brace ourselves for the open. More to come, watch this space.

Talks stumble, the bears will be loving life at the moment and it seems possible that the open will see some selling. Unless something happens between now and 0700GMT.

I will update with more in the morning.

[info]Part Two 9:46GMT[/info]

I may have been a little over cautious of the open this morning. I was half expecting to see a rapid sell off due to the outcome of talks last night and this morning they announce that the morning meeting would be postponed until this evening. So even though time is running out, they can afford to postpone would could be one of the last meetings available to get this deal done.

We are currently trading just under 11500 which was the high of yesterday afternoon and are halfway between the daily pivot and R1. My automatic trader opened another Dax trade (long) so I am now sat on 4 open long trades. I know my rules say no more than two, but this software is still being tested so I will accept a few rule bends.

We have re-broken above the of the 11th June high and are now also above the bearish trend line (using points 10 April to 22 May). Yesterday I showed a four hour chart reaching the underside of the trendline from October 2014 and now we can clearly see the rejection from that line.

As I have typed this I have noticed another strong surge forwards in the Dax and we are now above 11500, in fact we touched as high as 11539 which triggered a couple of take profit targets on my auto trader and my results look pretty healthy at the moment. Have a look for yourself (click the “subscribe” button on the right).

Today, again, I am not manually trading my real account (if I can help it). I have a long Dax position and I am going to sit with it and potentially add if we see any more volatility. I am targeting 12,000 with a wide stop to let it breathe. Some may laugh at me for thinking it’s possible, some may ridicule, but I like the look of the fundamentals, despite the current irritants from Greece and the fundamentals should always lead trade decisions in my opinion.

Dax Support & Resistance

Daily R211680
Daily R111545
Daily Pivot11454
Daily S111319
Daily S211228
200 Day EMA10861

Dax Charts

Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

2 thoughts on “Dax Technical Analysis 25/06/2015

  1. Interesting reading as ever,

    Chris, whats your thoughts on the dax if no greece deal is made.

    Im forever reading recently that Europe and particularly germany look cheap and a rally is likely.

    I think Dax rallies hard and fast if this deal does finally get done, but if no deal is done are we looking at a short term melt down, maybe down to and possibly through 10k ?

    Would be interested in your thoughts…

    Cheers Paul

    • Hi Paul

      It’s a difficult one to call isn’t it.

      I think if a deal is not made then the market is going to react negatively no doubt. I don’t like the precedent that Greece will set long term for general market stability in the Eurozone and I don’t like the potential knock on effects if you consider various permutations.

      But ultimately, I take a much simpler view on the whole thing. Germany’s economy is solid, the German exposure to Greek debt is an irritant but not massively damaging. I look to health of the US and Asia economy for a guide because they are big trading partners for Germany and so long as the Germans continue to do what they do well, and their trading partners can continue buying their stuff, the outlook for Germany is strong.

      The impact of a Greece default will cause a shock but I see a recovery after the major institutions step in and pick plenty of positions for good value. I intend on doing the same.

      I will not be shorting stock markets.

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