Dax Technical Analysis 24/03/2015

Good morning Traders!

Yesterday we closed at the lowest level for nearly two weeks and perhaps saw a bearish engulfing candle suggesting that bears had wrestled control and we going to have a go at breaking the range to the downside. There is still time for that to happen, but there was massive resistance at 11800 which propelled us through 11900 and now we are attempting to claw-back some of yesterday’s losses. So it’s difficult to really know what we are doing in the short-term.

I find these trading conditions difficult because finding a strategy is difficult, so I am going to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. I have a strong bullish bias with my current positions, averaging around 11985 and I am happy to sit on the positions for a couple of weeks if necessary. I won’t be scared to cut them off if we do begin a major reversal and start to test the key support levels, but I still think this would be unlikely given the underlying macro factors, at least until late spring, early summer.

When we trade sideways it’s very easy to adopt a range trading strategy and expect price to bounce between the range levels, but the Dax provides too many break outs to make that strategy effective in my opinion. The pullback strategy has never been a strategy worked for me, I believe in sticking with the trend or at least your bias.

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Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212130-71
Daily R111995-127
34 Hour EMA11920-56
Value High11912-173
Daily Pivot11909-99
24hr VWAP11885-123
Naked VPOC11882-160
Value Low11862-129
Daily S111774-155
Daily S211688-127
200 Day EMA1015017

DAX FXi Predictor Analysis

This continues from the following article: https://www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

We are in a bull market, according to the chart on the left (daily chart) so I am only interested in going long, but we are clearly over-bought intra-day on the 30 minute chart on the right. No opportunity to buy right now, in fact I would not be surprised if we fell back to 11870 before attempting to climb again. A break under 11800 past 11750 would be significant for the bears, but currently bulls are defending that level well.

 

Dax - FXI Indicator
Dax – FXI Indicator
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Dax Daily Chart Analysis

Still sideways trading and trapped in the large range. We could be here for a little while

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5 minutes)

Price came into the price zone I marked out, but strangely bounce the black box and fell just after the box finished. But 11800 would have been a great entry and congratulations to anyone brave enough to take the trade.

We traded down to S2 yesterday and as so typically happens, did not trade below. Today we have tried to test the S1 and now we are past the daily pivot and perhaps on our way back up to claim 12k.

A break through the daily S1 could open up the door to 116xx. There is a lot of overhead resistance too so a break either way is going to be tricky.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30 minute)

We didn’t test the channel lines from the (what could be perceived as) bull flag or at least the temporary bearish channel last week and we stalled at the weekly S1. We have now bounced and are testing the 34 hour EMA half way between the weekly S1 and Pivot.

Price action is moving sideways at the moment, but for bulls, anywhere near 118xx could be a good entry if we continue to hold above 11775.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
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Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

Looking at yesterday’s profile, there is still room to move up, if we consider the low volume pocket created when price fell in the early morning, we have a 50 point zone between 11950 and 12000 where price sliced through, so the ceiling is the 11950 level. If we can break that, it will be interesting to see if price gets sucked back up to 12000.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
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