Good morning traders!
We know after the Donald Trump fiasco that the market has anticipated a lot of fiscal spending which of course will keep the markets buoyant and the US 10-year yield has been rallying hard since the election on the back of increased inflation expectations. As a result the S&P500 has recently hit another All Time High, which is a repetitive theme with this market, and often, the German Dax follows, but at the moment it is not. There is a clear disparity between the Dax and the US markets. Some analysts are expecting this gap to close and for the Dax to catch up. Some analysts are saying that the reason for the disparity is because of the, almost constant, uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone. The latest story is now regarding Italy.
Yesterday I committed another faux pas, well more of a taboo; I made a prediction (below) and I sent it out to my Premium Subscribers on Telegram. Trying to predict an unpredictable market is like trying to tell a wide-awake child to go to bed or trying to get out of bed at 5am when you went to bed at 2am. But in this case, it worked out very well.
Here’s how it’s working so far on the five minute chart:
We also won a few points on the market as well:
CLOSE DAYTRADE BUYLIMIT #GER30 @ 10732.85 | PROFIT: 26.25 PIPS | 2016.11.22 20:26 (GMT) – closed out early as didn’t want to hold overnight.
Dax Technical Analysis
We are still range bound.
I could probably just leave it there. We are still range bound… But there are a couple of ranges. On the daily chart the longer term range is 10180-10830, but recently we have carved out a range between 10600-10800. We are at the top of both of these ranges and right now there is plenty of supply, suggesting a turnaround is on the cards.. But I run the risk of repeating myself, for the umpteenth time. Let’s keep it simple, I am watching for a break above 10830 or a break below 10600.
On the H4, after the recent consolidation, the Bollinger bands have started to pinch together and we are in the top half of the range. We saw the oscillator take a turn to the downside, but yet failed to reach the pullback zone.
The H1 chart shows the smaller range a lot more clearly. I have personally been bullish recently, but there is bearish divergence on this chart, suggesting supply is beginning to fade out, so a good place to have a stop loss (if you were long) could be the 10700 low.
The m30 chart is not even worth looking at, it’s a mess.
So today we are sat around 10750 and this has already been an area of resistance previously. I want to see if we get a reaction to the high from yesterday, which is right above us. I am keeping an eye on divergence for intra-day signals but I don’t have a position open, at don’t see much value at the moment.
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day EMA||10352|