Good morning traders!
Thanks to all those who have recently continued to support the site in my absence by contributing to the forum, chat room, Skype conversation and sent emails and messages. I hope trading has been good for you over the last week.
Christmas is nearly here and I suspect it means that many trading offices are now beginning to wind down for the remainder of 2015. So liquidity and trading activity is probably going to also slow down and provide less volatility and opportunity.
The falling oil price continues to cause problems with the emerging markets, but European equities are expected to out-perform US based on the widening rate differential. The question is, do we have an opportunity to buy on the Dax right now?
Dax Bearish Forecast
The Friday close looks pretty bearish and we are in a pretty compelling short term down trend from the 5 minute chart. A sell from the daily pivot could provide interesting risk:reward opportunities. The R1 also looks appealing. A third option is a bounce from the short term trend channel. The SnP still looks heavy and can pull on the Dax still further.
Dax Bullish Forecast
After a week off from watching the markets, I have to be honest and say that I haven’t done my usual research. But my bias remains bullish, mainly because of the weakening Euro, monetary policy divergence, underlying QE theme and Santa Rally vs being at support. I have an order to buy from lower levels:
I think the SPX can continue to move a bit lower, but there is some decent support just below us. I would like to expect that any bounce will influence the Dax. I like the setup we are approaching from the 4-hour chart, using the 50% retracement strategy.
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day SMA||10685|