Dax Technical Analysis 20/03/2015

Hello Traders!

Solar eclipse today has slightly distracted me, I had high expectations living in the South West UK, but being March, perhaps I expected too much. Despite not seeing a lot, it got darker and the TV footage from the Faroe Islands was pretty extraordinary.

Anyways, business as usual so far today. The longs are looking good, we got our entries and have taken a bit of profit from a few small longs. I have three longs currently open and I will see how they progress. I pretty much missed most of the morning session today, so I will just keep today’s article brief.

I made mistakes yesterday, I attempted a few US trades, but they went against me and as I was due to leave for the city of Bath to do a gig with my band, I decided to cut my losses and stick to the Dax. I don’t pay much attention to the US markets, so I scolded myself for attempting to get a few quick scalps off the back of a tweet I received. Silly mistake.

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Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212110-13
Daily R1120011
34 Hour EMA11932-8
Value High11930-46
24hr VWAP11913-6
Naked VPOC11906-33
Daily Pivot11892-15
Value Low11857-19
Daily S111783-1
Daily S211674-17
200 Day EMA1011519

Dax FXI Predictor Indicator

We had the buying opportunities yesterday from decent levels, but of course who was to know that we were approaching the bottom. I didn’t get the perfect entries, but I managed to get in at 11901 for some decent points cashed out today. Today the indicator suggests that we can trade as high as 12138 and good buying opportunities will be down around 11900-11950.

Dax - FXI Indicator

Dax – FXI Indicator

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Dax Daily Chart Analysis

The candle from yesterday suggests either a bottoming of the previous two days of corrective movements, or perhaps just a slight reprieve of a deeper correction. Today however looks to point to the former and it seems we are back to resuming our rally. Until proven otherwise, I will use a couple of days of selling to initiate more buying with targets of 12500 and 13000. If we can get there by the summer months I will be very happy.

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30 minute)

Wedge formation has broken to the upside

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5 minute)

Trapped in a range, but a break to the upside will signal a resumption of the trend (in my opinion) and I do not intend shorting the Dax until it becomes absolutely clear that we have reversed and for me that means trading below 11500 and having a substantial macro event. I think the box breakout could take a couple of attempts and we may pullback to test the top of the range before building from there. I like another entry at 12025. Perhaps a potential (risky) long entry.

R2 could be a could stopping place, but trading above this could mean 12150.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
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Dax Volume Profile Analysis

If we stay above the value are high from Wednesday (2dVAH) then we are targetting a break of the daily high, from here we are into uncharted territory (based on the two days of volume profile data on the current chart)

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)

 

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