Dax Technical Analysis 20/02/2015

Good morning traders!

I guess today is the day to decide the next major move. Are you remaining flat and neutral or have you taken (about to take) a position and leaning towards a particular outcome.

“Not Good Enough” say the Germans, pretty much provided the major story today. Further doubt is being cast over an agreement, which really needs to be made today. We know Athens needs a lifeline. Talks collapsed earlier this week but yet many investors seem confident that an agreement will be reached. I personally think there will likely be some kind of compromise.

Bullish Approach. It’s clearly difficult to ignore the weakening Euro and bond buying program beginning next month, with Germany still producing decent numbers. You have to expect that Greece are not going to martyr themselves or commit suicide by leaving themselves with no financial options. Markets will rally, but perhaps there is going to be some volatility. So pick a good spot to get in. 10880 could be a great price, but even 10925 might not be bad. Current levels are workable, but expensive if you are not already long.

Bearish Approach. Greece are playing hard ball, they have a last resort in the form of Russia, so they will happily lend the money to help kill the Eurozone won’t they? (well… some believe it) The Germans are stubborn and won’t back down, the Greece are irresponsible and won’t accept the position they have got themselves into, they are at loggerheads and lenders won’t accept the terms Greece propose. No agreement, no money, big problem. Although this is unlikely to happen, the fear will still be there, so if the fear is there, then the markets will fall. Current levels are inflated, pick your entry.

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Dax Support & Resistance Levels

KEY LEVELS
Daily R211108
Daily R111044
Value High10996
Naked VPOC10971
24hr VWAP10958
Daily Pivot10957
34 Hour EMA10956
Value Low10942
Daily S110893
Daily S210806
200 Day EMA9780
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Dax Daily Chart Analysis

Brand new high yesterday! Again! We are compressing up to the 11k level more and more and it’s only a matter of time before we break the consolidation.

Dax Daily Chart Analysis
Dax Daily Chart Analysis

 

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

A break above 11020 we see the daily R1 at 11043 which could slow things down. The 34 period moving average is currently supporting price and adding an additional layer of support. A break below S1 could open up 10850 and 10800. You can see the triangle that has been emerging for much of February continuing to develop and we are bullish above 10800.

 

Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

All key levels from last couple of days are with a range of 60 points or so. Much larger range day, gradually settling and compressing towards day end. Choppy sideways conditions.

 

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
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