Dax Technical Analysis 18/03/2015

Good morning traders!

As a bullish trader, life is good, the Dax is taking a breather to digest the recent epic rally, we are trading at near record levels and in the medium term I can’t see much else happening but further gains. In the past, the biggest mistake I have made is to push my luck and short the market when it reaches what looks like the top. Now I have decided to not short in any bullish market, but instead sit out and watch for an opportunity to buy back in. So that’s what I am going to do.

This week’s big event that has the market’s focus is the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate decision and statement, economic projections, and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s subsequent press conference. The federal funds rate is not expected to change at 0.25%, but market watchers will be scouring the statement looking for changes in the language, particularly the possible exclusion of the word “patient.”

I’m speculating here, but if we continue to see the relief rally in the EURUSD, which will be fuelled by the loosening on the Fed wording from the FOMC press conference, then it could put pressure on the Dax and open up the door to a further pullback. I stress the word could, now it’s my turn to be specifically selective with my words.

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Dax Support & Resistance Levels

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212314-85
Daily R112161-124
Value High12050-169
Daily Pivot12045-64
24hr VWAP12007-116
Naked VPOC12004-170
34 Hour EMA12001-11
Value Low11948-88
Daily S111892-103
Daily S211776-43
200 Day EMA10078-8


Dax – Indicator Predictor

This continues from the following article: https://www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

Nothing really standing out on this chart, we look to be in a sideways/corrective move so I will just watch for an opportunity.

Dax - FXI Indicator
Dax – FXI Indicator

Daily Dax Chart Analysis

An interesting pullback level on this chart from the fibonacci extension tool. RSI has dropped below 70 and price still sits above the 8 period EMA and the original trend channel.

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5 minute)

A break under the 618 fib could suggest further moves down towards key support levels, which has been tested a couple of times already. The fib zone is from the recent fractal swing. The S1 is around the psychological 11900 level. I found the volume spike interesting, as this was one of the attempts at taking out 11930.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30 minute)

We are back inside the trend (regression) channel and the 34 hourly EMA is beginning to level off, perhaps point down. We would need to break heavily to the downside to test the weekly pivot point, but I think that is definitely possible if we break 11900. I am still bullish. I am still ideally targeting 11500 for a long position. But realistically 11750 looks interesting as does the weekly S1.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

We are hovering on the value area low and I think this looks likely to be broken, downside levels are not visible on this chart, so see previous. To the upside I would be triggering a long position on a break above previous two days value area highs.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)