Dax Technical Analysis 18/02/2014

Hello traders!

Fundamentals are still having an impact on the markets, but buying is still strong as can be witnessed on the S&P500 index where today it reached 2100 for the first time. I watched tiptv yesterday and earlier today and some of those guys including Clive Lambert all seem to be on the long bus for Dax. EuroStoxx seems to have a bullish prediction which is strongly correlated to Dax, EURUSD seems destined for lower levels, closer to parity (I am watching to short from around 1.15/1.155), which is good for the Dax and so all we need now is an extension of the bailout in Greece or another agreement by the end of the week which can allow traders to sweep the negative knock-on effects from the reality of our bankrupt anarchists in Greece under the carpet and continue to drive up stocks and futures prices until the next dilemma.

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Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R21105432
Daily R11098146
Value High10918-40
34 Hour EMA10899-7
Naked VPOC10886-49
Daily Pivot10872-15
24hr VWAP10866-55
Value Low10838-69
Daily S110799-1
Daily S210690-62
200 Day EMA975713

Daily Dax Chart Analysis

Still inside a large range, near the top of the rising bull channel, RSI is still around 61 and price sits just on top of the 8 day moving average. The market is moving sideways and short-term trading for the remaining three days of the week will hinge around Greece news releases. Opinion is heavily divided on the outcome of talks this Friday and whether there can be an agreement regarding the bailout package.

Dax Daily Chart Analysis
Dax Daily Chart Analysis
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

Based on the fractals, we have been bullish since 10600 making higher highs and higher lows, with the current trend defining level at 10764. We remain bullish above that. If we break, the I would like to see a move down to test 10600 again and then consider buying from there. The daily pivot and the weekly pivot are converging around the psychological 10850. On the five-minute chart below this one we were intra-day bullish and are currently at the bottom of the rising channel, just above the hourly 34 moving average.

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis
Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

We definitely saw a drop from yesterday’s POP formation. It’s great when these patterns come around. We began the day on Tuesday heavily bearish dropping 80 points in half hour. It took us so far away from VWAP and outside the deviation low that reversion back towards VWAP picked up strong momentum and we ended up testing the value area from Monday. We found resistance just above Monday’s value area low, lost steam, pulled back and then took the second wave and took out the naked VPOC from Monday. This also rejected price and now we are back to 10900.

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Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
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