Dax Technical Analysis 17/03/2015

Good morning traders!

Are we finally going to have a negative day? I have forgotten what they actually look like. If we are pulling back today, then we are likely going to see waves and false buying areas. I want to be careful that I don’t fall into the trap of buying when it wants to fall further.

The ZEW data was a slight disappointment in terms of expectations, but the number is still stronger than last time which supports the longer term bullish case. However in the short term it’s likely that the ultra-bullish stance will be on hold temporarily and CFD traders will likely want to take some profits.

I would personally like to see a correction to the mid 11xxx level, but I think that is unlikely. The 12k level will be good to watch and the S1-S2 zone. We broke resistance around 11975 on Friday which could be supportive and the fib zone from the recent swing suggests the 11930 level as being around the .618. All of these levels can slow price as it tumbles, but for now I will watch and wait for it to lose momentum.

Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212399272
Daily R112285244
Value High12219242
Naked VPOC12174238
24hr VWAP12123277
Daily Pivot12109217
Value Low12036100
34 Hour EMA12012177
Daily S111995189
Daily S211819162
200 Day EMA1008648

Dax from the FXI Indicator

This continues from the following article: https://www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

We are currently at support on the 30 minute chart, but don’t forget the ZEW release, printing less than expected which is seen as a disappointment. I might just sit back at watch this until lunchtime.

Dax - FXI Indicator
Dax – FXI Indicator

Daily Dax Chart Analysis

Signficant resistance hit at the 100% extension. Last time we did that was end of January and we had a 400 point pullback. We closed under the 12180 and now starting that pullback.

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)

I have closed most of my longs now and I am waiting for a decent entry. This pullback will likely provide the entry. Either this afternoon or the end of the week.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

Yet another sign that we need a pullback, we have burst out the top of the channel and are looking to revert back. I would welcome a pullback towards the weekly pivot point here (or further).

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Dax Volume Profile Analysis

We have dropped about 1% fairly quickly today and the value area low held its first test. If it breaks, we look to target Friday’s value range starting with the value area high at 11977, it’s fairly unlikely we fall past the 11937 vpoc from Friday, but if we do, its a clear sign that we are looking to head back towards the weekly pivot and rebuild from there.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)

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