Dax Technical Analysis 17/02/2015

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Good morning traders!

Slightly boring day yesterday really. No US liquidity on hand and markets were waiting for the outcome on the Greece meeting which ended as expected, with Greece rejecting the proposed 6-month extension of the bailout. No surprises there then. It’s expected that some form of agreement (or not) will be made by the end of the week which will provide further uncertainty for the rest of the week. Good article on the topic here.

We started the week slightly bearish day and looking at the volume profile chart, we have a very interesting POP pattern to see if it drops today. If this pattern plays out, then today should be bearish.

Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R211022-26
Value High10958-27
Daily R110935-77
Naked VPOC10935-45
24hr VWAP10921-50
Value Low10907-47
34 Hour EMA10906-13
Daily Pivot10887-89
Daily S110800-140
Daily S210752-152
200 Day EMA974411

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

8 period moving average is horizontal, just underneath the close of yesterdays candle and starting to look towards pointing down. RSI seems to be getting back to normal levels, despite us being close to record highs suggesting a further move to the upside soon will happen (perhaps not today though, or even this week some might argue). Still technically in consolidation and the fundamentals will likely lead the next direction. Regarding Greece, if we get a moderately acceptable outcome by the end of the week, it will likely mean a resumption of the bullish move, but we get continued tensions and lack of agreement from both sides, it may open up a correction towards the bottom of the channel.

 

Dax Daily Chart Analysis
Dax Daily Chart Analysis

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

34-period moving average is pointing down, we are below the daily pivot and now the weekly pivot also. 10800 has become a key level of support. I would like to see a move up towards the 34 period moving average, or the Bollinger band on the chart below this one, before a fall down to 107xx and further this week.

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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

 

Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

If you see POP look for a drop! Look at the second volume profile chart below.

Yesterday we saw another P formation on the market profile, which when you look at the previous days, completes a POP formation. Not a text-book version, but a loose version which I will watch with interest. I can’t predict how the extra liquidity today will hit the markets, but I would welcome a pullback towards vwap early in the day before a resumption of the sell off.

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
POP FORMATION
POP FORMATION
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