Dax Technical Analysis 16/03/2015

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Good morning traders!

The Euro is still currently dropping like a stone, European equities all opened higher this morning and 12,000 is the target today and all eyes will be on the resulting reaction specifically whether or not this becomes key resistance causing bears to step in to force a pullback. Watch out for the ZEW this week.

It’s really difficult to sell indices in these market conditions, because as soon as we get a slight correction, buyers step in and send the market higher. So despite the traditional indicators saying it’s overcooked, the underlying trend has been clear so far and the momentum is very strong.

As I write this, we are currently 11,997

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Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212127220
Daily R112041170
Value High11977164
Naked VPOC11936141
Value Low11936169
Daily Pivot1189279
24hr VWAP1184649
34 Hour EMA1183591
Daily S11180629
Daily S211657-62
200 Day EMA1003821

The Indicator

The left side of the chart below suggests that we are approaching a top of the trend as we have an arrow and a 3 inside the yellow circle. These indicators are not an exact science, but they are suggesting that there could will be a reversal, fairly high probability of one, at these levels. Now we need a trigger, either fundamental which could provide a large correction, or a technical setup which could provide a pullback. On the right side of the chart, the channel is beginning to curve and turn flat and current zone to sell (with caution) will be 12056.

More about this indicator here: https://www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

MARKET ANNOUNCEMENT: DAX HITS 12,000. Trade cashed in!!

It’s difficult to predict the reaction that 12k will have because we are in new territory. It’s not like these levels are historically significant because we’ve never seen them. I personally am closing a couple of trades here, but I will watch the reaction first.

Forex Indicator Predictor - German Dax
Forex Indicator Predictor – German Dax

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

12180 still remains an upside target as this is the extension of a shorter term swing, I will not be selling from there. Pullback target could be the 618 extension (11574) and I will certainly be buying from there.  I know many traders are short on this market and feeling the pain, many traders also look at the market and think “I can’t get in now, it’s too high” but this market seems to currently know only one direction.

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

We tested the top of the regression channel last week and have broken out of it this morning. The weekly pivot levels are showing that last week we broke above the weekly R2. Alejandro Zambrano thinks this market can move 10% higher before being fundamentally overbought.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
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Dax intra-day 5 min

Pullback zone could be the S1/S2 area, if we take that out, then the larger 11572 area could be targeted. Upside targets today will initially be 12045-12050 and resistance will be expected here, if 11975 can hold then we can continue up.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
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Dax Volume Profile Analysis

If we take out the value area high from Friday, then we can easily fall down to the naked vpoc. There is plenty of support there, but a break of this could take us down to test vwap or even the value area low.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
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