Good morning traders!
I have made the conscious decision to not trade at the moment because I think the Greece debacle is creating too much uncertainty, there are articles everywhere discussing the unfolding events with this particular link providing some live updates: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11674609/Greek-talks-break-down-live.html
Many news articles are referring to another interesting article: http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2015/06/14/greece-a-credible-deal-will-require-difficult-decisions-by-all-sides/ written by IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard.
The DAX trend has been bearish since hitting a high in April, but recently neared the 200-day moving-average. Since 2009, the DAX has bounced twelve times from or near the 200-day-average. It slipped below the average on six occasions. It was only during three occasions which it experienced a major decline on a break of the 200-day-average. With this in mind, we likely need a Grexit or major fear of higher Fed rates to trigger a decline in U.S. equity markets, impacting the DAX as well. What the dominating theme will be is not clear at this time. (Taken from CFDTrading.com)
So I am sitting watching from the sidelines and waiting for the outcome. The views from the news reports are pretty skewed towards Grexit which is creating (or will create even more) fear in the market and produce a further selling wave, such as the huge gap lower this morning. But there major institutional banks who have produced reports believing there will be an agreement, but it won’t happen until we are at deadline time. Should this prove to be the case, then I think there will be many bearish casualties/fatalities.
I have just been listening to Alejandro Zambrano’s webinar whilst typing this report and he is also of a similar opinion to me, that he is going to wait and see in the stock markets. There are no buying opportunities just yet, he is waiting for a breakout above last weeks high and wants to see an outcome to the Greece issue.
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day EMA||10817|
So I am watching whether the Dax breaks to a new low and continues the recent bearish trend (highlighted below) by taking out 10864, or whether we hold and create a higher low meaning I we should watching to see if we can create a higher high than the 11453 from last week.
We put in a doji on the weekly chart for last week and this just highlights the general market sentiment of uncertainty. So we just need to wait and be patient.
We have already traded below the low from Friday and are currently holding at that level. If we break above then we could close some of the gap before moving lower so Bears could get a good entry to short from higher levels. A break below the daily lower could open up a move towards the daily S2 of 10914. It’s difficult to see a bullish setup, but if we take out the naked vpoc at 11179 we could look to target a move towards the Friday value area high.
But as a summary, I am watching and waiting.