Dax Technical Analysis 15/04/2015

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Hello Traders!

It looks like we have settled around 12200 and we have now broken a previous lower high so this could well perhaps be the turning point and end the pullback. ECB has increased ELA for Greece banks by a further EUR 800mln to a total of EUR 74bln, according to a source. IMF has stated that it is in discussions with Greece over the resumption of its lending program. All encouraging news to support what we’ve said.

Although the ECB rate decision is unlikely to send any waves through the markets, we will watch the industrial production numbers as this could cause a reaction.

Yesterday I was stopped out on a few long trades as I underestimated how far it was going to pullback. Greed got the better of me, but I am long again. I entered from 12200 and 12250 and will now watch the 11300 level to see if we can take it out and hold it.

I would like to think that after Draghi, the market will start to resume its move.

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Dax FXI Analysis

I like the 4-hour chart and the moment. We are under the blue median line, in a bullish channel with the oscillator point up and passing through the 30 line. 12185 seemed to be a great entry, providing we can break through 12300, we could very well be seeing another push to the upside. I have been trying to find a suitable entry to go long again, and in a bullish trend that normally happens after a couple of down days, which we have had.

For more information about this indicator click here

1Dax - FXI Indicator
1Dax – FXI Indicator

Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212425-15
Daily R112342-26
Value High12304-82
34 Hour EMA12277-23
Daily Pivot12262-59
24hr VWAP12259-92
Naked VPOC12241-137
Value Low12214-123
Daily S112179-70
Daily S212099-103
200 Day EMA1046851

Dax Daily Chart

The test of the breakout zone we mentioned before has held, if we get a decent up day today then I would imagine we can continue to build higher from here. If the 12180 does not hold then we could be back inside the trading range of the last few weeks. In my opinion, we are bullish above 11500.

2Dax Daily Chart
2Dax Daily Chart

Dax Intra-day (4 Hour)

I have added another layer of support to the chart, under the recent low, which is also the neckline of the previous breakout. The FXI indicator shows a decent shift in momentum back to the positive and there is an opportunity to take a long position with stops under the most recent support, if you are wanting to get in.

3Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
3Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)

Dax Intra-day (30 minute)

I have been playing on this chart with some lines. I initially drew the black trend line and then took various parallels (in blue) to line up with the fractals I could see and there are some interesting areas where price respected these additional lines and reacted to them. I may just keep them on the chart and see what happens.

4Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
4Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Dax Intra-day (5-minute)

5Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
5Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)

Dax Volume Profile

6Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
6Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)