Regarding an update on news in currency markets, GBP took the biggest hit yesterday on the back of the BoE releases. ECB’s Praet said `we are not yet there’ on normalisation debate. US President Trump is said to still be weeks away from nominating anyone for the Fed, according to a White House official. So, looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Retail Sales, Uni. Of Michigan, Fed’s Evans, Harker and ECB’s Constancio.
As for the Dax, we saw a small loser yesterday in terms of movement in price action, we lost 0.23% (30 points) after ranging around 113 points
We have conflicting signals on the two main timeframes. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is currently sat in the buying zone at the bottom of the recent range, suggesting that bulls have a good reward to risk opportunity from current prices (12,720). However, on the 1-hour timeframe, the price has broken below the wedge pattern that has been forming over the last few days, suggesting that bears have a good reward to risk opportunity to short for a move lower.
The Bollinger bands are beginning to tighten as price move sideways, oscillating around the daily pivot somewhere between the midline and the lower Bollinger band. The oscillator (Stochastic 15,5,5) is not providing any indications of overbought/oversold, so the price action is not very interesting at the moment.
If we are in a selling period, then traders are likely to use the 12830 level for placing their stops, targeting 12625, 12575 and perhaps 12500, if not lower. More conservative traders looking to sell would be waiting for prices nearer to 12750 before shorting.
My algo remains bullish and according to recent support, we are bullish above 12650 with traders placing their stops under this level. More aggressive buyers are using 12700 for stops looking for a test of 12780 and perhaps a retest of the all-time highs.
Dax Support & Resistance
|14 Day ATR||115.05|
|200 Day EMA||11436|