Good morning traders!
Bulls seem to have made a false start and bought too early because the Dax is still being pulled lower at the moment, perhaps influenced by the US. The SPX looks to be breaking support and heading towards 2000 again, which is likely to hold. Reasons for SPX heading lower seems to be caused by interest rate speculation so we’ll take a quick look at some of the fundamentals for over there.
The U.S. economy has shown mixed signs of recovery. Employment is still the best performing indicator and has posted two non farm payroll (NFP) reports that have exceeded forecasts, in a row. Purchasing manager’s indices (PMIs) and retail sales have underwhelmed and raised questions on the readiness of the U.S. economy to cope with higher interest rates. The U.S. retail sales and core retail sales will be published at 8:30 am EST. Consumers have perhaps opted to save their wage increases, but retailers are confident that the holiday retail season (that started with Thanksgiving) will show an improvement in consumer spending. The WSJ forecasts a 0.3 percent for both U.S. retail sales and sales excluding autos.
So if the rate increase speculation continues, I can only see it weighing further on the SPX and therefore the Dax.
If the interest rate decision disappoints, perhaps we will see a sharp relief rally as short positions begin to unwind and bulls begin to step back in again. So now we have broken 10,550 I expect us to reach 10,500, perhaps find some support temporarily there and then target the previous lows again. Before next Wednesday I am expecting us to reach further towards 10,300.
Most of my technical indicators are bearish at the moment including the moving averages on all the time frames, the head and shoulders on the H4 and the trend channels, so I would imagine anyone following a trend following strategy is laughing at the moment.[twitter-follow username=”DaxTrader54″ scheme=”light”] [twitter-follow username=”DaxTradersignal” scheme=”light”] [wp_ad_camp_1]
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day SMA||10698|
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