Good morning traders!
Risk aversion? Perhaps not yet, but the SPX looks to be testing trend support and perhaps looking to test the 2000 level, which will probably have a negative effect on the Dax. Many analysts predicted 11,000 would be the closing price this year, so if we are to expect a santa rally, then there could well be some good points on offer.
Volatility will return next week with the Fed rate decision, but expect waves before Wednesday.
Let’s look at the charts:
Weekly chart: we are closing in on the long standing trend support once again, after piercing and bouncing from it twice in the past. A 50% fib from the Oct-Dece swing suggests a target of 10,357. More bearish estimates are 10,100 and even 9,500. The overall weekly trend still looks bullish above 9300.
Daily chart: arguably we have taken out a higher low set back in November and closed around a buying zone for many bulls. We closed significantly below the daily 200 EMA and are comfortably inside the lower half of the long standing pitchfork and about to make contact with the top of the kumo cloud.
H4 chart: Head and shoulders pattern complete with price currently sat right on the neckline. A move could send us way down towards 9,850. At the very least 10,357 and perhaps 10,100. The Bollinger band is expanding but we’re still in the top half of the regression channel.
m30 Chart: The fibonacci extension targets are still 10,300 which ties in nicely with other charts, so a drop down there could make sense, especially as that’s where the weekly S2 is. I have a couple of buy orders from a little further down. We are still trailing under the 34 period hourly EMA with a strong bearish trend.
m5 Chart: Price has come up to the three moving averages, but still trending down. I can see a move up towards the daily pivot, perhaps even the R1 before a continuation of the slump towards 10,300. The daily S2 is at a similar price. I would like to see a bounce from here.
m1 Chart: There have been some great trades on this chart, congratulations to those who took them. The indicators are turning bullish, but there is no reason to suspect a reversal from here.[twitter-follow username=”DaxTrader54″ scheme=”light”] [twitter-follow username=”DaxTradersignal” scheme=”light”]
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Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day SMA||10699|