Good morning traders
So we are down nearly 1500 points from April’s high despite some strong German GDP figures. We have experienced 9 bearish days out of 12 with yesterday being the fourth in a row. We have taken out 11,000, closed below it and found the lowest RSI reading since October last year. Volume is remaining fairly steady so there seems, as yet, to be no stopping volume. All pretty compelling stuff. But before we blindly jump ship and turn bearish consider a few other things; the 200 day moving average and the various Fibonacci studies and support region from January, which can also be seen on the 150 day composite volume profile chart (below).
We tested the 200 day moving average in December and January so I would like to see what happens when it’s tested again. The Fibonacci studies can be seen below which looks at two Fib retracements and one Fib extension and highlighting a zone between 10691-10852. This zone is also around the Jan/Feb consolidation and can provide some support, if we continue to sell off.
Dax Support & Resistance
Some key levels to watch out for
|34 Hour EMA||11047|
|200 Day EMA||10803|
The first chart shows the the RSI signals from the indicator, the signals will be selling signals because of the bearish trend. Nothing new today.
The daily chart is interesting as we are nearly touchedthe daily 200 EMA and are on the median line of this manually draw fork. RSI is nearly into over sold levels and the lowest since October (when we reversed).
I have taken the decision to only trade long on the stock markets. I don’t like buying and selling. So I am waiting for lower levels to buy. I am watching for a drop to the black zone here, these could provide good buying spots for me.
We are at the weekly S2 and this may provide us with a quick bounce. I don’t know if bulls are quite ready to step back in a take control, but there could be a bit of a temporary relief rally soon, then further downside.
I posted this shallow triangle earlier on twitter and since then we broke out to the topside and have followed it down the roof. The bearish setup is still in play, but the fractals are no longer showing a clean downtrend. In actual fact, taking the most recent four fractals on their own, it shows an end to the downtrend and the start of an uptrend.
Another look at the 150 day composite volume profile on the daily chart. I mentioned the low volume pocket, we have sliced through most of that and may continue to find some support at the higher volume node marked out. If I was a betting man, I could be tempted to take a long on a speculative bounce from the high volume node and vwap confluence seeing as this all combines with fib studies and the 200 day moving average. The stop loss could be easy enough to protect me.