Dax Technical Analysis 10/04/2015

Good morning traders!

The mailing list seems to work now! Thank you for all the messages alerting me to the problem, I believe it is now fixed because I have seen a dramatic uplift in subscribers over the past couple of days. Please join up so I can keep in contact with you, I will probably only send a couple of messages a month, with the occasional update to the website or strategy that’s working for me or useful resource I’ve found, but I won’t spam. (The signup page is on the right)

So, Greece has made a €450m debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is concerned with the eurozone pointing to the risks of low growth and high unemployment. Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated against public spending cuts in towns and cities across France. French investors have shrugged off today’s nationwide strikes and European markets seem to have done quite well. Banking sources are saying that ECB has increased their ELA funding for Greek banks by €1.2bn.

So perhaps a reprieve of sorts, because the major financial headache that many were preparing for, has been put on hold, for now. Greece may have paid this bill, but they still have their public sector bills to pay and many other repayments. So I still see a lot of uncertainty over the next month.

If I was a weather presenter, I would be saying things like “scattered showers” and “overcast” together “sunny spells” using lots of vague language metaphorically to set the expectation that actually things are going to be a bit shit soon, but for now we can enjoy a bit of peace.

I have a few positions open. I am long Dax targeting 12250. I am short EURUSD targeting 1.055. I am short EURGBP targeting 0.715. I am also considering a long GBPAUD and GBPJPY, but I don’t want too many GBP pairs in my portfolio. I am long USOil, but not loving this one.

[twitter-follow username=”DaxTrader54″ scheme=”light”]

Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212332153
Daily R112264146
Daily Pivot1215488
Value High1213833
34 Hour EMA1211448
24hr VWAP1211042
Naked VPOC1209413
Daily S11208681
Value Low1205512
Daily S21197623
200 Day EMA1034520

Dax FXI Analysis

The daily trend is bullish and the recent fundamentals have opened up the door to further gains so we want to be long. The 30 minute chart on the right is still showing us in overbought territory intra-day so I would probably wait for a better price before going long. The green zone on the right (buy zone) begins are 12090 and below but I personally would look to buy from around 12130. If the price doesn’t come I may consider a move on a break above previous highs.

To learn more about this indicator, please refer to my review article here: https://www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

1Dax - FXI Indicator
1Dax – FXI Indicator

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

We have now created what looks like a double top and are about to break out of the range we’ve been trapped in for the last three weeks. We have the fundamentals temporarily aligned with the repayment of Greek to allow the markets another chance to inflate until the next worry.

2Dax Daily Chart
2Dax Daily Chart
[wp_ad_camp_1]

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (4hour)

The previous high could prove to be stubborn resistance, but the triangle we are forming will need to break at some point and the signs are strongly suggesting an upside break.

3Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
3Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
[wp_ad_camp_1]

Dax Intra-day Analysis 30-minute

If we do break out of the range here, we still have the weekly R2 overhead, so a false breakout needs to be considered. You may even say that this is a reverse H&S technical pattern, so if the break out happens, that would likely be the neckline and upside targets could be as much as 12700.

4Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
4Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
[wp_ad_camp_1]

Dax Intra-day Analysis 5-minute

I would like to see us pare some of the very recent gains and drop back to a more reasonable buying zone between the daily pivot and S1. I suspect if we do hold these levels and continue moving higher, the R1 is the most obvious target.

5Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
5Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
[wp_ad_camp_1]

Dax Volume Profile

We are way above vwap and price generally likes to either wait for vwap to catch up by moving sideways for a bit, or pulls back. So I am not adding to my position from here. I like a move closer to YVAH before going long again. Of course a break above the previous highs could signal a move much higher.

6Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
6Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
[wp_ad_camp_1]
en_USEnglish
en_USEnglish