Good morning traders!
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So, Greece has made a €450m debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is concerned with the eurozone pointing to the risks of low growth and high unemployment. Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated against public spending cuts in towns and cities across France. French investors have shrugged off today’s nationwide strikes and European markets seem to have done quite well. Banking sources are saying that ECB has increased their ELA funding for Greek banks by €1.2bn.
So perhaps a reprieve of sorts, because the major financial headache that many were preparing for, has been put on hold, for now. Greece may have paid this bill, but they still have their public sector bills to pay and many other repayments. So I still see a lot of uncertainty over the next month.
If I was a weather presenter, I would be saying things like “scattered showers” and “overcast” together “sunny spells” using lots of vague language metaphorically to set the expectation that actually things are going to be a bit shit soon, but for now we can enjoy a bit of peace.
I have a few positions open. I am long Dax targeting 12250. I am short EURUSD targeting 1.055. I am short EURGBP targeting 0.715. I am also considering a long GBPAUD and GBPJPY, but I don’t want too many GBP pairs in my portfolio. I am long USOil, but not loving this one.[twitter-follow username=”DaxTrader54″ scheme=”light”]
Dax Support & Resistance
|34 Hour EMA||12114||48|
|200 Day EMA||10345||20|
Dax FXI Analysis
The daily trend is bullish and the recent fundamentals have opened up the door to further gains so we want to be long. The 30 minute chart on the right is still showing us in overbought territory intra-day so I would probably wait for a better price before going long. The green zone on the right (buy zone) begins are 12090 and below but I personally would look to buy from around 12130. If the price doesn’t come I may consider a move on a break above previous highs.
To learn more about this indicator, please refer to my review article here: https://www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/
Dax Daily Chart Analysis
We have now created what looks like a double top and are about to break out of the range we’ve been trapped in for the last three weeks. We have the fundamentals temporarily aligned with the repayment of Greek to allow the markets another chance to inflate until the next worry.[wp_ad_camp_1]
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (4hour)
The previous high could prove to be stubborn resistance, but the triangle we are forming will need to break at some point and the signs are strongly suggesting an upside break.
Dax Intra-day Analysis 30-minute
If we do break out of the range here, we still have the weekly R2 overhead, so a false breakout needs to be considered. You may even say that this is a reverse H&S technical pattern, so if the break out happens, that would likely be the neckline and upside targets could be as much as 12700.[wp_ad_camp_1]
Dax Intra-day Analysis 5-minute
I would like to see us pare some of the very recent gains and drop back to a more reasonable buying zone between the daily pivot and S1. I suspect if we do hold these levels and continue moving higher, the R1 is the most obvious target.[wp_ad_camp_1]
Dax Volume Profile
We are way above vwap and price generally likes to either wait for vwap to catch up by moving sideways for a bit, or pulls back. So I am not adding to my position from here. I like a move closer to YVAH before going long again. Of course a break above the previous highs could signal a move much higher.[wp_ad_camp_1]