Good morning traders!
Yesterday we broke below the 200 day EMA with a significant close of 10704, the lowest close in 107 trading days, taking us back to February, a time where every other day we were talking about “yet another all time high, another bullish day etc”. How times have changed.
We are still inside the bearish channel, threatening to reach the lower trend line as we now have taken out the line in the sand. It seems that the only positive signs of reversing the current bearish trend will be a deal between Greece and the creditors. This will at least provide some temporary relief and remove some of the uncertainty in the markets. But your guess is as good as mine as to whether that is likely to happen. I am beginning to think that Tsipras & Co. don’t actually have any suggestions to handle the problem. They simply want a reduction in the debt. So we remain at loggerheads.
There was another big volume day yesterday which I find interesting, could it be interpreted as stopping volume? Or is it just the realisation of an imminent Grexit?
The bearish momentum on the daily RSI now looks set to test 30 again, which is an area we have not been below since our major low of October 2014.[wp_ad_camp_1]
I am beginning to wonder that as we have taken out a significant area of support, are we about to retrace some of the current wave before moving further down, a moment of reprieve to catch breath. Because overall, in the more medium term I suspect we are looking to at least complete the 50% retracement of the Oct 14-Apr swing, with some consolidation in between over the summer months. In 2011/2012 there was as much as a 60% retracement of the bullish move, so I would not be surprised if we continued past the 50%, towards the 61.8%. I would be buying from (short of a continued financial crisis).
I made two John Anthony trades yesterday, they both won and I have taken my record to (4-0-0), four wins from four trades, no draws and no losses.
My auto-trader took a beating today, there were a few suspect trades which has made change a couple of conditions. But this is the common difficult with automatic trading systems, there are no considerations made to fundamentals, it’s purely technical decisions so fine tuning is part of the game. Overall we are still up, barely, but this month has seen some volatility in my equity curve.
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day EMA||10865|
The red box is the the zone between the 50-61.8 fib zone, a retracement target for many investors and a point where a lot of bulls will wake up.
We broken below key support, but are still inside the bearish channel, 10700 may provide a bounce point.
10686 is an interesting area to watch as it complete the 100% extension from the April/May swing
Interesting now that the 11,000 level is the daily R2 (approximately)[wp_ad_camp_1]