Good morning traders!
Moves were relatively subdued yesterday after Macron’s win in Sunday’s French presidential election, so the market seems to have now put that firmly in history now and looks forward to company fundamentals and ECB’s QE. The French parliamentary elections may have some market impact, but given the margin of victory, it’s less likely to create any major problems across EU markets.
Import and exports of goods and services, trade balance and current account data released today were good and support the solid start made this morning. The Dax has already rallied 60 points today, recouping just over half of the losses sustained yesterday.
I remain bullish, however, I am aware that we need a pullback. I am watching for a break below the trend line on the hourly chart.
See below charts for more analysis
Dax Support & Resistance
|14 Day ATR||117.1|
|200 Day EMA||11410|
The hourly chart has been forming a [fairly steep] trend line recently and this trend line was tested last night. This morning we have bounced from the trend line and perhaps a break below could be interesting. Considering the time frame, the bearish divergence signal could still be interesting for a swing trading spread bet, but it just seems that after Friday’s spike, it’s a failed signal.
As for the 5 minute chart, the daily S1 was strong support yesterday and I mentioned in my previous article that we could find ourselves back at the 50% retracement level – which was also the daily pivot. Price reached that level. If we break above the 61.8 it could suggest a further move higher, just keep an eye out for a reaction at the R1.