Dax Technical Analysis 09/02/2015

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This week: I would love to short from 11k, there are tons of orders up there and we have a lot of reasons to turn bearish at the moment, which we will see on the charts. 11k would be an almost ideal level to short and ride the correction down to 10200-10400.

Bullish play today: There is an opportunity to go long from 10670 with stop around 10635 to target 10750. Long from current levels leaves us exposed to a continuation of the sell off from Friday, which is not unlikely.

Bearish play: If you don’t go short from current levels, then a pullback towards 10820-10850 could offer a decent short spot targeting 10680

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Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R210958-54
Value High10871-40
Daily R110868-88
34 Hour EMA10839-35
24hr VWAP10831-45
Naked VPOC10831-35
Daily Pivot10811-62
Value Low10807-59
Daily S110721-96
Daily S210664-70
200 Day EMA967611

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

There is bearish divergence on this chart, looking at the oscillator and price, with the oscillator making lower highs and price making higher highs. This perhaps means underlying weakness in the Dax as bulls are becoming exhausted. The question to ask is, are we at a significant high? If yes, this could be the beginning of turnaround. Well, we have reached an all-time high after the recording breaking rally and we have found a  number of levels of resistance. I do believe this could be the start of a correction. I would however like to hope that we reach 11k first (just to get a better price to short from).

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart

Dax Intra-day Analysis

Moving average on the 30 minute chart is starting to point down for the first time in a while so if we continue to the downside, I will be watching S1 with interest, because if that goes S2 will be likely be hit.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Dax Volume Profile Analysis

We are starting the day today underneath the value area low with vwap and vpoc around the same level at 10831, to get there we need to take out the previous YVAL price rejection from around 19:00 on Friday. I think that’s possible based on the lack of volume traded below 10820

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)