Good Morning Traders!
So we are now past the opening couple of months for 2015 and these are historically good bullish months. We have had the first proper signs of how ECB are going to begin their QE program and we are still seeing a flow of capital into European equities. Inflation will pick up, we are already seeing it with the increase in our Dax and so long-term, at least for the remainder of 2015 I will be looking to target the upside.
The fundamentals are still looking good to support further upside, although I believe there will almost certainly be a decent sized, very fast correction, coming in the not too distant future. I doubt I will take any short swing position, but I will be looking to book profits and sit out and wait for it find its feet again.
I am personally targeting 12000, best case scenario we get there this week, maybe next, worst case scenario we have a decent correction soon and don’t get there until nearer April/May. I am bullish above 11150.[wp_ad_camp_1]
Support & Resistance Levels
|34 Hour EMA||11487||51|
|200 Day EMA||9946||14|
Interesting article right here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecbstaffprojections201503.en.pdf
The German economy is in pretty good condition, highly creative and fiercely competitive with inflation still predicted to outperform other Euro zone countries. The labour market performance has been strong, interest rates are likely to remain extremely low, the Euro is currently shedding its value (EURUSD parity is possible by 2016) and will remain low for a while longer keeping exports attractive to the recovering economies such as the US, one of the bigger trading partners for Germany, so the key industries of vehicle manufacture and engineering will continue to be in high demand. This all ignores the obvious benefits of a large-scale QE program and resulting capital flows which will almost certainly increase inflation. Lower oil prices are providing an increase in real disposable incomes and private consumption is expected to continue to increase in Germany. All very positive, but there are a few shadows looming over future prospects such as declining current account surpluses, public finances are perhaps turning slightly negative into a minor deficit, industrial growth and export growth showing signs of slowing down (with the latter perhaps as a result of larger economic partner beginning to struggle).[twitter-follow username=”DaxTrader54″ scheme=”light”] [wp_ad_camp_1]
Dax Daily Chart Analysis
If you draw a Fibonacci expansion/extension from 6th Jan low to 3rd Feb high with the final point at 10th Feb low, you have a 0.618 expansion target of 11587 which could provide a potential reversal area. If we look at Friday’s candle, we pierced that zone and were rejected creating a potential top and start of a pullback. Monthly R1 stands at 11658 which will likely provide some resistance on the move up to 12000. The technical pattern suggests a bounce here, but the fundamentals don’t quite support it, more likely we get sideways movement and remain in the range of the monthly pivot and monthly R1.[wp_ad_camp_1]
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30 minute)
The regression channel from 17thFeb-23rdFeb is now back in play, after a brief period of trading to the downside after breaking out lower, the 34 hour EMA is underneath but pointing back up. We created a 4-hour fractal on Friday and are now at the bottom testing the bottom of the trend channel. A break below 11500 opens up a potential test of the weekly pivot at 11435 and entering the buy zone. A hold above 11500 means we can target the monthly R1 from earlier.
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5 minute)
The fib zones from the recent swing using the 4-hour fractal, gives a potential pullback area of 11400ish, if we break under the weekly pivot of 11435. Monday’s daily pivots suggest price won’t go below 11431 (S2) so a fall back to the fib zone could take a couple of days.[wp_ad_camp_1]