Hello traders. It’s NFP day today, so expect plenty of volatility. I am not really interested in having anything open during that time, because I think it’s gambling and not trading. But in the build up to that release, there could be some opportunities. We covered one this morning in the webinar and most of that was recorded below. So log in or register to view the video (check back later if it is not yet uploaded).
We have a setup developing based on low volume pockets above us, offering a long opportunity but strong centre line resistance as well. There is a fork developing on the 5m time frame supporting a long. However, the daily chart, suggests that buying is futile. It’s a good battle.
Today, the article is based on that video and the journal from yesterday. I will share the entire content of the journal from yesterday.
Yesterday’s DAX Journal
22:26 – Center Line Hit
Well the move happened, it hit the center line nicely and it worked out to be a nice move. Delta divergence + balance points and fork lines come to the rescue once more. Great tools. Not always on their own, but when used in connection with market context, it’s great.
22:25 EURAUD 4/5 Taken
On the Gold member signals, I have taken another piece of the EURAUD trade off the table. That’s been a great trade. Really enjoyed watching that one develop. It may be
17:28 – More context
That provides a little more context behind my thinking. The centre line is possible, but a break above the fork is a dead setup. Some people were asking me why I did not send this as a signal. The answer is because not every setup that I find is ‘worthy’ of being a signal. It doesn’t have the right reward to risk ratio. This one is pretty much 1:1 it’s high risk, relative to the probability of its success. So I will point out the opportunity for those who so choose to join. More signals will come though. I am sure of it!
17:16 – Management
We have a low volume pocket directly above us, and price could fly through quite quickly. That’s a risk to this setup. On the other hand, there is another pocket directly below which is what I am looking for. A little bit of support at 360 on futures, could hold it up. So I am watching the cumulative delta, to see whether the momentum continues with the selling, despite the price absorbing the action.
17:10 – SCALP
I noticed that we are having a delta decline but price is at the top of a range. There is a chance to scalp a few points lower here. Once again, I have not planned this, so I can not release it as a signal. But there could be a chance here. I am taking it. Just a small one.
15:50 – TARGET HIT
And there it is!! That was beautiful, just beautiful. I got out earlier than I should have and actually the center line was a much better target to aim for. But that’s fne, I had marked out the area I wanted to hit. I traded my plan. No regrets. Next time I will keep half on and the other half leave for the enter line. The delta divergence was a fantastic indicator and momentum change. The head and shoulders neck line break was the catalyst. A good trade setup.
Shame it was not public so everyone could see it, but hey, at least we did.
15:34 – SCALP
A bit more context around this one. The reward to risk is not a great setup in terms of sending out a signal. But I am going to trade it personally on my other account. I may have actually already been a bit presumptive and taken it. But a break through the neckline is possibly a better confirmation.
An idea I am pulling together
Quiet day today so far, I have been looking a long opportunity, but have not found the right line play. A trader colleague of mine (not daxtrader) has spotted some confluence and did trade long, which I think earned some points. I suspect we get some activity in the afternoon session.
That setup is dead and buried, no trade taken or sent. Back to the drawing board. But I think the move has happened already
This is a potential setup developing if you believe in this balance point. It is offering excellent reward to risk to target the median line
10:10 – TARGET HIT
Beautiful, I love it when a decent piece of analysis comes off. It’s not all the time. Only risked 0.5% and took partials, but profit is profit.
There is some balance point line play at work on the 5m chart, check out the telegram broadcast channel
We have just completed the webinar for today, and now I have edited the footage and it’s compiling ready for upload. In that time I closed a second piece of the trade out (image below). My thinking was that as we touch the POC from yesterday, we get a reaction.
As a summary for the webinar:
- Balance point line play on the H1 chart points out a reaction line to short from
- Spike this morning could be a bull trap, expect a second test
- Bulls are struggling to take out 12500
- We are forming an ascending triangle
I learned another lesson this morning, don’t stay up until after midnight watching trading videos because otherwise, you will sleep through your alarm and miss the market open. Let’s get into work mode quickly!