Bearish below 12253
Looking to short from higher levels, until we break above the trend defining level. We like the 180-190 zone and have already sent out a trade this morning which barely went into drawdown. So we are watching that carefully and 220 is interesting too.
We spend all day watching the charts and looking at the technical levels for all the markets, but sometimes can forget to look ahead at what may also have an impact on our trading. Here are just a few:
The deadline for the US debt limit is getting closer and with political negotiations deadlocked, it’s likely they run until the very last minute and often things look very dire right ahead of the deadline. If this pattern repeats itself, risk appetite may stay subdued until we get to the ‘other side’ in early October. It can therefore possibly pull on the DAX.
Hurricane Irma is gaining momentum, keep an eye on that too. Especially as it looks to take on Florida.
German elections! SPD candidate Schultz is accused of being a Merkel doppelganger. AfD can’t stop fighting themselves. It will probably turn out to be a CDU-led grand coalition (or maybe a centrist coalition with CDU, FDP and Greens). Will there be a continued push for closer EU integration? I guess I am surprised that there has not been more spoken about the elections. The campaigns have been a bit… quiet. Yet the polls still say that Merkel is on track for her fourth term in office.
The early signs suggest that the NK tensions are not really spooking the market right at this moment. Perhaps it’s because given the grave consequences of war, the probability of miltary action is low. I suppose I am only half joking when I say that the NK regime are probability playing the VIX game and profiting from the volatility in the markets. This would create a bullish environment for the DAX.
So yesterday China created a few waves by deciding (perhaps temporarily) to ban ICO while they try to figure out what it means. Watch this space.
As far at the portfolio goes, I re-invested the remaining amount of dollars into Ripple and IOTA (given the discount), so I hope to see a return on those
Current balance: $447 (originally $125, all time high $497)