Dax Technical Analysis 05/02/2015

Some interesting articles to read:

Dax Rally: Exhausted or about to get more excited

Why investors should stick with hot Dax

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So a bearish play today would be to watch for a break under recent support of 10800 for a decline to as far as S2. I would suspect a bounce in the early morning to correct some of last night’s sell off. Perhaps an entry nearer to 10875 could work.

A bullish play would to enter on a re-test of 10800 looking to get back to 10900, that proved resistive yesterday so scaling out of the position would be a good strategy.

My prediction for tomorrow is sideways movement/consolidation.

Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R210998-65
Daily R110920-77
Value High10886-65
Naked VPOC10870-47
24hr VWAP10865-51
Daily Pivot10861-59
34 Hour EMA108578
Value Low10841-42
Daily S110783-71
Daily S210724-53
200 Day EMA965211
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Dax Daily Chart Analysis

Yesterday gave us a pullback to the weekly R1 level and now brings us around 145 points under the upper trend line from the bullish channel. The upper trend line also acts as an area of confluence with the weekly R2. If we see another bearish day, I would look to target the weekly pivot of 10684, if we see a bullish day, then 10987 is not out of the question.

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

Yesterday, I suggested a trade at 10850 for a move to 10920 with a stop at 10830. I took a similar trade, scaled out of half of it around 10900 and was stopped out of the other half. I have three open trades, smallish positions, but are currently into drawdown with stops at 10750. I am looking to target 11400 initially with a longer term target of 11700.
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

 

Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

The market profile chart has a pretty normal distribution from yesterday, no pockets, nothing out of the ordinary, besides the crazy 80 point collapse half an hour before close. I contemplated getting another long trade in, but decided against it, as I already have three and I never take more than four, so tomorrow would’ve been a potentially very quiet day for me.
Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis

Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis

Notice on the chart below that we recently broke out off the triangle formation, well price is now starting to come back to test that line and on many occasions in a bull market, this technical pattern suggests a bounce higher as it “kisses goodbye” the previous resistance.

Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
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