Dax Technical Analysis 04/09/2017

Dax Outlook

The Dax remains bearish under 12253 and traders are still looking for shorting opportunities given the tensions in the Korean peninsula.

We have a gap from the open this morning, which is yet to be filled (at the time of writing). If the gap does close, we believe it will allow many traders to get short to target the next wave lower. The Point of Control from Friday is an obvious target at 12151 on futures. The first attempt to close the gap (this morning) did not finish, reaching a high of 12094. However, current price action suggests that we are ready for a second attempt.

We have been watching for a reaction to the underside of the triangle pattern that formed a couple of weeks ago. Longer bearish targets include the extension from wave 2 – 3 on the 240m chart. This extension will complete wave 5. It suggests 11560, but we are likely to find plenty of support on the way.

For Bulls, the meeting on Thursday could provide some hope, as the ECB are unlikely going to make any changes to their asset-purchase program during Autumn. Under normal circumstances, you could argue that ECB stance creates an environment that would suit buyers. But we still have a nuclear backdrop to contend with.

Interesting sell zone: 12120 – 12150

Interesting buy zone: 11950 – 11980

News & Releases

  • North Korea said Sunday it successfully tested a hydrogen bomb with “unprecedentedly big power.” The test, the first since is a new hurdle for markets. U.S. President Trump threatened to increase economic sanctions and halt trade with any nation doing business with Kim Jong Un’s regime, and his defense chief said the U.S. has “many military options.”
  • Plenty of China data is scheduled for this week. Trade figures are anticipated to show another month of solid export growth, while FX reserves probably continued to rise on stricter capital controls, robust growth and a stronger Yuan.
  • The European Central Bank meets on Thursday. President Mario Draghi will express concern over the euro’s strength when the ECB meets this week, but won’t say much about his asset-purchase program’s future, according to a survey.
  • It is likely that he will now wait until at least October before announcing big changes to QE. Officials may not have a full plan until December.
  • Several Federal Reserve officials speak this week, including member of the Board of Governors Lael Brainard, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who all have expressed doubt about the need for another rate hike this year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who has argued for a gradual pace of tightening despite tepid inflation, will also talk.
  • U.S. markets are closed Monday.

Dax Charts


Crypto Portfolio

Current balance: $428

No trading losses have been realised over the weekend, just a mark down in the value of the coins I am holding. I am considering buying IOTA, Ripple and OMG. I have $200 in cash in the portfolio ready to invest.

I held a little webinar on Friday afternoon to talk a little bit about Crypto currencies:

1 – What they are and how they work (discussing the Blockchain)

2 – How to buy them, store them and how to trade them (coinbase and BitFinex for example)

3 – How to research the fundamentals behind the projects (GitHub)

If you want to get involved in the next one. Let me know on Telegram.