The overall trend is still technically bearish, so we are probably going to find the most success finding spots to follow that trend. The sellers are still in control and their targets are likely to be the lows of the week and lows of last week. As we are currently very close to those levels, it is not making sense to sell from this level. As we get closer and closer to the 12075 level again, we will see more of those sellers become buyers as they exit their positions. So sellers are close to their objective.
We have seen a strong move down, followed by a trading range, so once price breaks out of this trading range it will provide more clues for future direction.
I am looking to be a seller between 200-240, buyer between 075-110. I think we stay range bound until after NFP
Dax Bearish Strategy
Sell at resistance and take profit at support.
There is a Low Volume Node above us which is acting as resistance. So if two tries to take that out fail, then this is a trigger to get short. If the Low Volume Node is taken out, then we may have to wait for higher prices, such as the weekly high. Alternatively, a break lower is interesting if it takes out the 12075 and holds a pullback. This will signal a continuation of the longer term down trend.
Selling around the 200 level is a popular idea, so we may need to wait for these traders to have their stop losses taken out. This means waiting for a trap.
Dax Bullish Strategy
Buy at support and take profit at resistance
12075 is major support, so a break to this level could open up a trap as other sellers take their profits and become buyers. So if we can see a run back towards that low, it’s an option to buy there. In order for a buy to make sense, we need to see strength and holding a pullback. A break out of the current trading range (from the two hour opening range) will signal an attempt for bulls to take out the low volume node over head. It may need a couple of attempts. So a retracement back to VWAP is another spot to buy.
Alternatively, if we get a bullish reversal, then buy the dips.
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