Good morning traders!
There were some interesting little nuggets from Mario Draghi yesterday during his statement, he echoed that the QE purchases are intended to run until March 2017 but also dropped in that it could go “beyond, if necessary”. I wrote in my article yesterday that any hint of extension could be interesting. I also mentioned yesterday that it was unlikely that we would get any more easing, I think that was a given, but he did mention that additional monetary policy easing from corporate sector purchases and TLTRO-II will follow, once implemented. GDP growth and inflation projections were updated but the revision were small and may change again once oil has a more measurable impact. ECB remain optimistic on their core inflation forecast, but perhaps a bit too much. I expected much volatility yesterday, it didn’t really happen.
The daily chart still sits inside the trend channel (barely) and has touched the 200 day EMA two days in a row. On the face of it, this would look pretty bullish, but if we look to the 26th and 27th of April we saw something similar and price broke through support. 10150 looks fairly strong, so a buy from between 10175-10200 could be interesting. The recent 10150 low share a parallel on the H1 chart. A bear will be thinking that a few points above the daily high today provides the perfect stop loss for a short to target a move back down to 10200 and below. The five minute chart is coiling up after this morning’s rejected breakout. The daily pivot at 10221 was supportive and has created a double bottom.
SPX, Gold and Oil are also stuck in a range, so a catalyst may be needed to break out from this, perhaps NFP will provide it.
BULLS – If the 10150 floor holds then there is an opportunity to trade a continuation move. We are at the bottom of the trend channel on the daily chart and there is a swing opportunity to go long, but the levels are subjective. Intra-day, a buy from 10200 with stop 10150 and target 10300 could be interesting.
BEARS – If the current move lower from the beginning of June to 10150 is the first wave, then an extended move could open a decline to 10075. Shorting from 10250 with a stop above 10290 targeting 10100 may be interesting.
Dax Support & Resistance
|200 Day EMA||10154|