Dax Technical Analysis 01/04/2015

Good Morning Traders!

I have been sat here for a while trying to think up some ridiculous story to describe as part of an elaborate hoax for April Fools, but the truth is I am somewhat lacking in the creativity department today. Must drink more coffee. So I’ll scrap that idea.

I am told that the CFD markets will be closed Thursday, Friday and Monday for Easter and be open again, at normal hours on Tuesday (not an April fool).

Ok, so the Dax has beaten me up a little bit over the last couple days, but fortunately the positions sizes were not big and I refuse to change my bias, which has rewarded me today. I had two open long positions from just under 12k which were closed at 12075 and I will wait for a pullback before going long again.

Over the last few days we have had our test to the downside, which has held and perhaps now we have room to move again to the upside. My targets long term are still mid 12xxx.

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Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R212200-59
Daily R112067-105
Value High12034-63
Daily Pivot11991-28
34 Hour EMA11982-19
24hr VWAP11977-88
Naked VPOC11955-80
Value Low11918-98
Daily S111858-74
Daily S2117823
200 Day EMA1025517

Dax FXI Analysis

In the short term we are heavily overbought, but this is a common theme with the Dax. However I think a 200+ point rally, in just a few hours of trading taking us from the bottom of the 30 minute channel (on the right on this chart here) to the top of the channel on the 30 minute chart, suggests a need for a settling of price. Perhaps somewhere nearer to 12020. I will ignore the left side of the chart because this is a 5 minute chart with a lot of noise, but it is saying that we may have reached a top for now.

Read more about this indicator here: www.daxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

Dax - FXI Indicator
Dax – FXI Indicator

Dax Daily Chart

Same as yesterday, still moving sideways in the large range. Yesterday we corrected quite a lot of Monday’s gains, but today seems to be piling the pressure back on a break to the upside.

Dax Daily Chart
Dax Daily Chart
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (4 hour)

Here are the support zones marked in blue. You may be able to see the two channels I have drawn, highlighting the bearish channel that has been broken and tested and perhaps kissed goodbye as it continues its march forwards. The ATH is the most clearly defined key resistance to take out.

Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
Dax Intra-day Chart (4 hour)
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30 minute)

We have already taken out the weekly R1, perhaps this will be a place to hold as support and go long. The 34 period hourly EMA is clearly showing sideways movement but the most recent fractals are showing signs of a trend up, with higher highs and higher lows.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)
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Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5 minute)

As I write this, we have already taken out the daily R1 and are trading above 12100. The most recent high (from yesterday) of 12122 will be the first target, otherwise perhaps we fall back to the R1 and see if it becomes support.

Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
Dax Intra-day Chart (5 minute)
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Dax Volume Profile Analysis

What have we got left to target here? We have basically taken out everything already. So just out of shot at the top, we have the dotted lines of the composite 5 day volume profile which are the deviation lines and the deviation high from the 5-day composite is around 12150. This is not an unreasonable target, being that this will be the last trading day until Tuesday.

A drop towards VWAP from current levels is not unlikely, I like a buy from 12036 zone as there is a cluster of volume and previous levels.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)
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