18-01-2018 Dax Technical Analysis

18-01-2018 DAX Big Picture

We remain inside the expanding pivot setup. We have yet retraced back to balance which is most likely the point of control seen on the composite volume profile chart. It is likely that this zone (13050-13100) will prove popular with buyers if it gets there. However, there are no guarantees here. Price could just build from current levels and take out 13425, which would confirm that the most recent major low is now a swing low and a potential major bullish trend will begin.

Many traders in our premium community are trading (or at least discussing) the move down to balance.

18-01-2018 DAX Hourly

If we look at drawing a pitchfork from the 9/1 high, 11/11 low and 16/1 high, then we can see that the ‘A’ line of the fork is capturing price action quite well. The price peeled away from the ‘C’ point (the 16/1 high) and retraced back to the median line (ML) and is now close to the upper median line parallel (UMLH) – at the time of writing. This presents a shorting opportunity, for those believing in the overall major retracement to balance from the expanding pivot play. That idea is interesting especially as there appears to be a kiss goodbye from the underside of a broken minor trend line.

18-01-2018 DAX 100 Tick Chart

At the time of writing, there was an interesting long setting up. I pulled a basic pitchfork from the 16/1 low, 17/1 high and 17/1 low and witnessed that price had tagged the median line. From here, price reacted and bounced lower, as Alan Andrew’s work suggests. The test and hold above the lower median line parallel is encouraging for buyers. So if we manage to hold a retest, then we have an interesting reward to risk setup. The target for that type of trade would assume break to a new high, which then confirms the bullish trend and allows further spots to get long.

18-01-2018 Dax Levels

POC *13213
Value Area High *13227
Value Area Low *13167
14 Day ATR140.24
200 EMA12618
Daily R213331
Daily R113283
Daily Pivot13208
Daily S113160
Daily S213085
*These are FXCM numbers, not futures numbers. Please be aware that FXCM can often be 5-10 points higher than futures prices