Good morning traders and welcome to the 01-12-2017 Dax Technical Analysis. No signals were sent yesterday; it was a quiet trading day for me. It seems that all the action as waiting for today. We have seen the break lower and a test of the significant swing low, so the sellers have won the first battle in this ongoing range war. The range is 12905 – 13212 (but you could argue that the swing low is nearer to 12835), and we must break out of one of those to confirm the direction of the new trend. I discuss a few short setups below.
I remain happy with the November trading and signal performance. See our trade history and performance here: https://goo.gl/N6yoGK
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01-12-2017 Dax Webinar Summary
The bar by bar activity from yesterday’s trading session (a beneficial exercise for understanding price action) and I have summarised most of it towards the end of the video below.
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01-12-2017 Dax Outlook
Sellers are showing their hand today, so will the buyers defend the 12900 level?
The strength of the break lower is a concern, so any long at this stage is considered ‘catching the knife’. There is a definite risk that this momentum is strong enough to break the significant swing low and if so, we go back to a bearish trend. At the moment any long would be considered counter-trend.
We have pierced the 12900 level and reacted, it’s possible that the daily low gets another test and if that holds, it can offer a fade buy opportunity. A minimum of 4:1 would be necessary to justify the risk.
A glimmer of hope for bulls is that this aggressive sell-off today could be seen as an [A]ction point using Alan Andrew’s work. We also have a defined [C]enter line above, so if we see an equal and opposite [R]eaction, then we have the ACR line set to put on our chart, and a trade setup begins to form. But it’s weak.
Congratulations to those in the premium group who carried their shorts from yesterday.
Clearly in control at the moment and there are many opportunities to get short. If you are not already short, then it’s best to wait for a pullback to get in (or reload). A pullback to the underside of the breakout area is the most obvious choice (the ‘kiss goodbye’).
Longer term targets could be the 12600 value area visible on the daily chart, but that may be getting ahead of ourselves. We are technically still technically inside the value area on the daily chart, despite this break out of the minor consolidation.
01-12-2017 Dax Charts
Daily Chart – Major Swings
01-12-2017 Key Levels
|Value Area High *||13127|
|Value Area Low *||13029|
|14 Day ATR||158.73|
|*These are FXCM numbers, not futures numbers. Please be aware that FXCM can often be 5-10 points higher than futures prices|
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